By Jianli Yang

In a stunning reversal of longstanding U.S. foreign policy, President Donald Trump’s recent confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sent shockwaves through the international community. The heated exchange in the Oval Office, which quickly devolved from diplomatic niceties to near-barroom brawl, has not only exposed a dramatic shift in America’s stance towards its allies but also raised alarming questions about the future of U.S. support for Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s harsh demands of Zelensky, accusing him of ingratitude and threatening to cut off support, starkly contrasts with the unwavering backing Ukraine has received since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and full-scale invasion in 2022. This abrupt change in tone suggests a troubling new paradigm in U.S. foreign policy – one that prioritizes immediate transactional gains over long-term strategic alliances and democratic values.

The implications of this shift extend far beyond Eastern Europe. As Taiwan watches these events unfold, it must grapple with the unsettling possibility that it too could face similar treatment should conflict with China escalate. The island democracy, long reliant on U.S. support to deter Chinese aggression, now finds itself in a precarious position, questioning the reliability of its most crucial ally.

The Russian reaction to this incident further enhanced its international impact. For example, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, praised Trump for “kicking Zelensky out of the White House,” calling it “a slap in the face for the insolent pig.” Such reactions only serve to highlight how this internal discord can be exploited by hostile powers, potentially emboldening them in future conflicts.

Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, where financial contributions take precedence over shared democratic values, raises fears that Taiwan could become a mere bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing. His past complaints about Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and demands for defense payments highlight a preference for deal-making over ideological commitments. This stance not only undermines decades of U.S. policy but also emboldens adversaries like China and Russia, who may see this as an opportunity to advance their territorial ambitions.

The parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan are striking. Both face threats from powerful authoritarian neighbors and depend heavily on U.S. military and political support. However, Taiwan’s strategic importance – its position in the First Island Chain, control of crucial shipping lanes, and dominance in the semiconductor industry – may make its situation even more complex1. While these factors might incentivize U.S. intervention in a conflict with China, they do not guarantee protection from the kind of “bullying” we’ve witnessed in the Oval Office.

Trump’s apparent willingness to abandon Ukraine, blaming it for Russia’s invasion and entertaining negotiations that would cede territory to Moscow, has sent a chilling message to U.S. allies worldwide. If the U.S. can so easily discard a partner it has supported for years, what assurances does Taiwan have? The fear is that, just as Trump sees Ukraine’s security as expendable, he may view Taiwan’s sovereignty as negotiable in discussions with Xi Jinping.

For Taiwan, the lessons from this diplomatic debacle are clear and urgent. While the island nation has enjoyed strong bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress and military, Trump’s personalized style of diplomacy introduces a dangerous element of unpredictability. Taiwan must prepare for a scenario where U.S. support comes with humiliating conditions or, worse, is withdrawn altogether.

The repercussions of this policy shift extend beyond Taiwan. U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Japan and South Korea, are closely watching these developments. The erosion of trust in U.S. commitments could lead to a reassessment of defense strategies, potentially resulting in increased military spending and the pursuit of independent deterrence capabilities. This, in turn, could weaken the cohesive security architecture that has underpinned regional stability for decades.

Moreover, Trump’s engagement with Russia, seemingly aimed at creating a rift between Moscow and Beijing, may backfire spectacularly. Instead of driving a wedge between these powers, it could strengthen Sino-Russian cooperation, challenging U.S. influence in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific. This realignment could embolden China to more aggressively assert its regional ambitions, particularly concerning Taiwan.

As we witness this dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, it’s crucial to recognize the far-reaching consequences of abandoning long-standing alliances and democratic principles. The treatment of Ukraine serves as a stark warning to Taiwan and other U.S. allies – in the era of transactional diplomacy, no partnership is sacred, and no commitment is unbreakable.

For Taiwan, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. It must balance its reliance on U.S. support with the need for greater self-reliance and diversified international partnerships. As the island democracy stands on the brink of potential conflict, it must prepare not only for the threat from across the strait but also for the possibility of standing alone in the face of aggression.

The international community, too, must reckon with the implications of this new American foreign policy. As the rules-based international order faces unprecedented challenges, the world watches anxiously to see if the beacon of democracy will continue to shine or if it will be dimmed by the shadows of transactional politics.